The investment demand of property market should not be suppressed for a long time 金陵唐人游

Should not the long-term suppression of property investment demand the sina finance opinion leader column (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Dong Ximiao purchase is the administrative intervention on the real estate market, is a very very period, under the condition of non conventional means of regulation. If used as a long-term means, its negative effect is more. For the real estate market, long-term resistance to investment demand, not only will affect the reasonable demand, but also reduce the normal supply, is not conducive to the healthy development of the whole industry. Should not the long-term suppression of property investment demand this National Day, circle of friends in addition to a variety of travel information Shuabing, around the purchase of real estate news has become a unique holiday can be heard without end, a scenery line". Within a few days, Nanjing, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Hefei,, Wuxi, Tianjin, Beijing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Ji’nan, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Foshan and other cities successively issued restriction policies, or further tightened the existing restriction measures. Prior to this, Hangzhou and other places have implemented the restriction. In our country, real estate is a kind of special commodity, which has dual attributes of consumption and investment. As a consumer goods, real estate is one of the basic needs of people’s daily life, related to the people’s livelihood and social stability; as investment goods, real estate is the main asset of the people, is an important carrier of wealth preservation and value-added. Moreover, as China’s pillar industries, the real estate association is very strong, the upstream and downstream industries and products are very much. The trend of China’s real estate industry, not only affects the healthy development of the national economy, but also related to social harmony and stability. From the beginning of 2003, the Chinese government has focused on the implementation of macro-control of the real estate market, so far has issued relevant regulatory policy more than 40 times, but the price is rising edge edge, the more stressed the more up". In December 2009, the State Council put forward four measures for the real estate market, clearly stated "curb the rapid rise of housing prices", opened a new round of regulation and control Prelude (referred to as "country four"). But the rapid rise in housing prices has not been curbed. On the contrary, the phenomenon of rising house prices and hot sales has rapidly spread and spread to the two or three – tier cities. In this situation, in April 2010 the State Council issued "on resolutely curb housing prices in parts of the city of the rapid rise of" notice ("ten"), put forward "the local people’s government according to the actual situation, to take temporary measures to limit the purchase of copy number in a certain period of time". This time, the Chinese government officially proposed the idea of property restriction. In January 2011, the general office of the State Council issued the "Circular on further improving the regulation issues related to the work of the real estate market" ("eight"), put forward the "various municipalities, municipalities, provincial capital city and house prices are too high in the city, in a certain period of time, to develop and implement strict Housing Limited restriction measures. In principle, a local housing unit with a set of housing, a local tax certificate or a social insurance payment certificate for non local household registration households, a limited set of housing (including new commercial housing and second-hand housing)". This is a further definition and refinement of the restriction policy. Pushed by the central government

不应长期抑制楼市投资需求   文 新浪财经意见领袖专栏(微信公众号kopleader)专栏作家 董希淼   限购是对房地产市场的行政干预,是一种在非常时期、非常情况下的非常规调控手段。如果作为长期手段使用,其负面作用较多。对于房地产市场,长期抵制投资需求,不仅会影响合理的需求,还会减少正常的供给,不利于整个行业的健康发展。 不应长期抑制楼市投资需求   这个国庆节,朋友圈里除了各种出游信息刷屏之外,各地房产限购的消息也不绝于耳,成为长假独有的一道“风景线”。   短短几天之内,就有南京、厦门、深圳、苏州、合肥、无锡、天津、北京、成都、郑州、济南、武汉、广州、佛山等城市先后发布限购政策,或进一步收紧原有的限购措施。在这之前,杭州等地已经实施限购。   在我国,房产是一种特殊的商品,具有消费与投资双重属性。作为消费品,房产是老百姓日常生活的基本需求之一,关系到国计民生与社会稳定;作为投资品,房产是老百姓主要资产,是财富保值增值的重要载体。而且,作为我国支柱产业,房地产关联性十分强,上下游行业和产品非常多。   我国房地产行业的走向,不但影响国民经济健康发展,而且还关系到社会和谐稳定。从2003年开始,我国政府对房地产市场集中实施宏观调控,到目前为止先后出台相关调控政策超过40次,但房价却是“边涨边调,越调越涨”。   2009年12月,国务院针对房地产市场提出四项措施,明确表态“遏制房价过快上涨”,拉开了新一轮调控的序幕(简称“国四条”)。但房价快速上涨的势头并未得到遏制。相反地,房价上涨、销售火爆的现象,迅速向二三线城市传导和蔓延。在这种情况之下,2010年 4 月国务院发布《关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知》(简称“国十条”),提出“地方人民政府可根据实际情况,采取临时性措施,在一定时期内限定购房套数”。这次我国政府首次正式提出房产限购的思路。   2011年1 月,国务院办公厅发出《关于进一步做好房地产市场调控工作有关问题的通知》(简称“国八条”),提出“各直辖市、计划单列市、省会城市和房价过高、上涨过快的城市,在一定时期内,要从严制定和执行住房限购措施。原则上对已拥有一套住房的当地户籍居民家庭、能够提供当地一定年限纳税证明或社会保险缴纳证明的非当地户籍居民家庭,限购一套住房(含新建商品住房和二手住房)”。这是对限购政策的进一步明确和细化。在中央政府力推之下,2011年开始,全国一些房价过高的城市,纷纷出台房产限购政策。同时,央行、银监会推出“限贷”措施,对房地产信贷政策进行调整。   但是,实行两三年之后,随着房地产市场回落和库存增加,从2014年4月底南宁打响放松限购第一枪开始,各地的限购、限贷政策迅速进入松绑阶段。至2014年9月份,原来实行限购的大中城市中的绝大多数都已经退出或者变相退出限购,只有北京、上海、广州、深圳和三亚等5个城市尚未退出。   而去年下半年以来,上海市房地产市场出现了非理性过热,房价加速上涨的趋势,3月25日上海市政府在原有措施的基础上,进一步收紧限购政策,拉开了全国性新一轮宏观调控的序幕。截至目前,全国实施房产限购政策的城市已经超过20个,涵盖了“北上广深”等一线城市以及部分二三线城市。据估算,这些限购城市的GDP占到全国三成左右。   应该说,房产是一种特殊商品,房地产是一个特殊行业。房地产市场外部性强,又容易失灵,政府对其进行适度调控是必要的。限购政策作为调控的一种手段,在特定的时期发挥一定的积极作用。尤其是在房价大幅度快速上涨、房地产市场供求严重失衡等情况下,通过出台限购政策,有助于抑制投资性购房需求,挤出不理性的资产泡沫,促使房地产市场供求曲线的平衡点下落,合理引导房地产价格回落。这既是保持房地产市场健康持续发展的需要,也是响应百姓呼声、维护社会稳定的要求。   但是,限购是对房地产市场的行政干预,是一种在非常时期、非常情况下的非常规调控手段。如果作为长期手段使用,其负面作用较多。对于房地产市场,长期抵制投资需求,不仅会影响合理的需求,还会减少正常的供给,不利于整个行业的健康发展。更重要的是,限购政策如果长期实行,会扭曲房地产市场的正常价格,影响人们对房价走势的正确预期。此外,不合理的限购,还容易导致“上有政策、下有对策”的非合作性博弈,如前段时间不少地方出现为获得购房资格而排队离婚等现象。   不过,对房地产市场进行调控的方法和手段可以很多,总的来说可以分为直接调控和间接调控两类–直接调控,包括以计划制定、规划实施与行政干预等方式对房地产市场进行直接干预,限购就是直接调控的一种;间接调控,是指通过采取各项经济手段,包括实施财政政策、货币政策和土地政策等。在新的形势下,政府对房地调控的主要手段应以间接调控为主。这也符合“发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用”之精神。   当下,有两个方面的工作要尽快付诸努力:一是将货币政策保持在稳健中性的状态。吴敬琏先生认为,房价上涨的根本原因是货币超发。在国内经济出现企稳迹象的时候,央行政策重心应逐渐从稳增长移向调结构和防风险上来,通过窗口指导、公开市场操作等手段适度调节市场流动性,切勿让货币政策滑向宽松,以免进一步刺激房地产市场。同时,商业银行要实施严格的差别化住房信贷政策。二是要进一步完善住房保障体系。通过住房建设规划的编制,明确保障性住房、中小套型普通商品住房的建设数量和比例,尽快形成中低价位普通住房的有效供应。对保障性住房、普通商品住房的用地,要保证优先供应。鉴于我国目前存在大量空置住房,还可以由政府对其进行收购而转变为保障性住房。同时,加快廉租房、公租房等建设。   从长远看,我国应适时推出房地产税。十八届三中全会《决定》提出,“加快房地产税立法并适时推进改革”。房地产税将提高房产保有环节的成本,降低房产投资属性,抑制房地产投资性需求,引导房产回归为消费品。在“营改增”的背景下,房地产税的推出,给长期依赖土地财政的地方政府一个稳定的收入渠道,使各地的土地政策更加合理。而土地政策,是影响整个房地产市场尤其是房产价格的关键因素。文贯中教授认为,应对土地制度进行全局性改革,建立起全国统一的土地市场。   10月6日,在2016年第四次二十国集团财长和央行行长会议上,央行行长周小川表指出,近期中国部分城市房价上涨较快,政府对此高度重视,积极采取措施促进房地产市场的健康发展。下一步,我国政府还将祭出哪些大招,我们拭目以待。   (本文作者介绍:中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员,近著《有趣的金融》。)相关的主题文章:

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