Shen Dingli at the South China Sea and North Korea criton ADB unsuccessful Sohu comments 索然无味的意思

Shen Dingli: at the South China Sea and North Korea criton ADB not successful Sohu comment on US Secretary of state Kerrey in Beijing drink tea is not cold, the U.S. warship the Wilbur missile destroyer under the banner of "freedom of navigation" banner to enter China island waters. This time node choice really intriguing. We have to ask Kerrey for the East Asia especially China in the end what they talk about? In the South China Sea issue, reached an agreement with Chinese is? Obviously, Kerrey’s visit to Laos and Cambodia, three, to refer to Beijing. In view of Laos is the rotating presidency of ASEAN in 2016, the United States does not want to step in Laos a few years ago Kampuchea’s footsteps, as president of the association of Southeast Asian nations in the South China Sea issue rules for China stand. By doing the traditional friendly partner China Laos and Kampuchea, the United States hopes the two countries hold at least a neutral stance in the South China Sea issue, which will Chinese to isolated. So, the United States by what means? Strengthen the political cooperation and economic and military aid. Obviously, like Laos, Kampuchea and Burma, the United States will welcome the investment and foreign gifts, so as to realize the maximization of the interests of the state, so the United States will not return without input. But the United States will also encounter two major difficulties: first, the United States bad money. Because the U.S. debt, economic problems, its ability to application of economic lever has been significantly decreased. Laos and Kampuchea have no need to reject us "good", but not to give up the other partners, especially as China of the biggest economic partner; second, the old, Cambodia to "fish" and "bear", they could not consider cooperation with the United States required a major price to pay. In cooperation with the United States, it must be in accordance with the requirements of neutrality in the South China Sea issue, which is precisely what they are to bear the cost of. The Cambodian leaders of Kerrey clear that the demands of the sovereignty of the South China Sea is the contradiction between individual countries, rather than ASEAN as a whole, so should not be involved in the whole asean. A clear position, this is Kampuchea’s seemingly neutral, actually at odds with the Philippines and Vietnam America related position. Even if Kerrey’s visit to Phnom Penh, can not change the position of Kampuchea. This determines the ASEAN could not use in the South China Sea issue for the United States, to a considerable extent alleviate Laos faced pressure from the United states. Kerrey’s visit to China is an important issue to upgrade sanctions against North korea. For North Korea to develop nuclear weapons, many of us enjoy a common position: one is against two sanctions, three is stability on the Korean Peninsula and the situation in Northeast asia. However, how to upgrade sanctions and maintain stability in the region, the United States and China are more differences. On the one hand, for North Korea to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, not sanctions will be conducive to regional stability; on the other hand, blindly upgrade sanctions may cause a new and even more unstable, so the sanctions must also carry out dialogue. The goals of the North Korean nuclear issue towards consistent but not the implementation path, originally very normal. However, the United States to dialogue with North Korea, but to solve the nuclear issue all the blame for the Chinese, this is unreasonable. China not issue the initiator of evil. Just because the United States has long and long in the peninsula garrison on the deployment of nuclear weapons)

沈丁立:瞟着南海和朝鲜 克里东亚行不算成功-搜狐评论  美国国务卿克里在北京喝过的茶还没凉透,美军舰“威尔伯号”导弹驱逐舰就打着“航行自由”的旗号进入我国中建岛领海。这个时间节点的选择着实耐人寻味。我们不禁要问,克里这次东亚行尤其是访华到底聊了些什么?在南海问题上,与中国方面是否达成一致意见?   显然,克里访问老、柬、中三国,最终目的均指北京。鉴于老挝是2016年东盟的轮值主席国,美国不希望老挝步几年前柬埔寨的后尘,作为轮值国主席利用东盟议事规则在南海问题上为中国站队。通过做中国的传统友好伙伴老挝和柬埔寨的工作,美国希望这两国在南海问题上至少持中立立场,从而将中国推向孤立。   那么,美国靠什么手段呢?加强政治合作以及经济和军事援助。显而易见,老挝、柬埔寨和缅甸一样,将欢迎美国对其投资与外援赠送,从而实现其国家利益最大化,因此美国的投入将不会无所回报。但美国也将碰到两大困难:其一,美国差钱。由于美国债台高筑、经济捉襟见肘,它施用经济杠杆的能力已较前显著下降。老挝和柬埔寨虽无必要拒绝美国“好意”,但不可能为此放弃其他合作伙伴,尤其是象中国这样的最大经济合作伙伴;其二,老、柬两国既要“鱼”又要“熊掌”,它们不可能不考虑与美国合作所需付出的重大代价。与美国合作,就必须按其要求在南海问题上保持中立,这恰恰是它们难以承受的代价。柬方领导人对克里明确表示,南海主权诉求是个别国家之间的矛盾,而非东盟作为整体的问题,所以东盟不应整体介入。这就是柬埔寨的明确立场,貌似中立,其实与菲越美国的相关立场相左。即使克里访问金边,也改变不了柬埔寨的立场。这决定了东盟不可能在南海问题上为美国所利用,在相当程度上减轻了老挝所面临的来自美国的压力。   克里访华的重要议题是升级对朝鲜的制裁。对于朝鲜发展核武器,中美享有很多共同立场:一是反对,二是制裁,三是稳定朝鲜半岛与东北亚局势。然而,对于如何升级制裁并且维护地区稳定,中美正在出现更多分歧。一方面,对于朝鲜发展核武与导弹计划,不对其制裁将无助于地区稳定;另一方面,盲目升级制裁可能引起新的甚至更多不稳定,因此制裁同时必须开展对话。   中美对待朝核问题的大目标一致但实施路径不一,本来十分正常。然而,美国自己不愿与朝鲜对话,却把解决朝核问题的责任全部推给中国,这就是无理取闹。中国不是朝核问题的始作俑者。恰恰因为美国长期在半岛驻军并曾长期就地部署核武器,以及随着国际形势的变化半岛北南双方之间的力量对比和国际背景都发生了显著变化,加上美国长期拒绝与朝鲜进行有意义的对话,造成了朝鲜升级其一以贯之的威胁感知,突出反映在其对核威慑的追求之上,其结果还使中国的周边安全也更趋复杂。对这些消极发展,华盛顿甚有必要予以反省,它自己为朝鲜弃核究竟做了多少建设性的工作。   无论是在南海问题与对朝制裁问题,克里的东亚之行都不算成功。这自有其目标设置有误的因素,但其后果也甚为堪忧。在南海方面,美军太平洋总部司令哈里斯就南海问题发表挑衅性言论没两天,美舰“威尔伯号”导弹驱逐舰打着“航行自由”的旗号进入我国中建岛领海,美国国内也正出现更多威胁近期对朝鲜核设施进行打击的言论。美方这些言行,不仅于事无补,反将适得其反,进一步刺激东亚地区的紧张局势。   (沈丁立,复旦大学国际问题研究院教授、副院长,海外网专栏作者)相关的主题文章:

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